Bombing in Ukraine / Photo: AFP.
The war in Ukraine celebrates 500 days this Saturday with no prospects for peace and no decisive advances on the front, so much of the attention is on the repercussions of the shipment of cluster bombs announced by the United States and the summit to be held by NATO next week, in which Kiev will renew its request to become a full partner.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched just over a month ago to recapture Russian-held territories in the south and The east of the country is advancing at a slow pace, in the face of resistance generated by the strong defenses built by the Kremlin forces and the need for ammunition, artillery and combat aircraft that Ukraine is demanding.
We are waiting to see the main thrust of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which I hope will take place later, between September and NovemberJessica Genauer
According to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that monitors it day by day What is happening on the ground, major fighting is taking place at four points on the vast front, including the Bakhmut area, scene of the bloodiest battle since the war began on February 24, 2022.
We are still waiting to see the main thrust of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which I hope will take place later, between September and November. Currently, Russian forces still control about 15% of Ukrainian territory, told Télam Jessica Genauer, Professor of International Relations at Flinders University (Australia).
Ukraine hopes to recover a significant part of that territory before winter arrives, around November this year, he added.
Photo: AFP.
The offensive is not fast, that’s a fact, acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who continues to press Western powers to supply him with long-range weapons and US F-16 fighter jets.*100015 *
Without long-range weapons, it is difficult to not only carry out offensive missions, but also, to be honest, defensive operations, he explained.
This strategy in the delivery of weapons will be one of the lynchpins of the important NATO summit to be held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, on July 11 and 12.
Another central item on the agenda is Ukraine’s request to become a full member of the military alliance , a subject on which Zelensky managed to garner support in the mini tour he carried out these days in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Turkey.
There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO, said the Turkish president , Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, on the other hand, is blocking Sweden’s entry into the military alliance.
Despite this support, which is also reflected in the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council, the United States The United States was decisive in affirming yesterday that the proposal for Ukraine’s entry into the group will be discussed, but it will not be decided at this summit.
In the background are the warnings from Moscow, already made since 2008 at a meeting of the NATO in Romania, that Ukraine’s accession is seen as a direct threat to Russian territory.
In this sense, the Kremlin reiterated this week that Kiev seeks to involve more countries in the conflict by insisting on joining the military alliance.
The Kiev regime is doing everything possible to drag (…) more countries into this conflict. Many have already fallen into this conflict, directly or indirectly, Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitri Peskov said this week.
In the same context, Russia on Saturday condemned the US decision to send bombs to Ukraine cluster weapons, something that was also more explicitly or tacitly rejected by some Washington allies such as the United Kingdom, Spain and Canada, signatories to the international convention that prohibits this type of weapon.
The decision of the Joe administration Biden’s decision to supply the Kiev regime with cluster munitions is another flagrant manifestation of the US’s aggressive anti-Russian course, aimed at prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
Russia condemned the US decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine / Photo: AFP.
In this context of high tension and a diplomatic dialogue that has been broken for more than a year, the options for a ceasefire are not even being analyzed today, despite the proposals that have emerged recently from actors not directly involved in the conflict as Brazil, China or the African Union.
It is highly unlikely that we will see any kind of negotiated end to the conflict before the end of 2023. Depending on the extent of Ukraine’s achievements in the coming months in counter-offensive operations, and the continued readiness of the Western partners of Ukraine to supply arms and military aid to Ukraine, we could see the conflict continue in 2024, Genauer analyzed.
There is no doubt that the end of the conflict is still far away. None of the parties is willing to negotiate their territorial claimsAlexander Hill
And he recalled: Given the presidential elections in the United States, Ukraine and Russia in 2024, we could see political changes in any of these countries that could affect the duration of the conflict.
Alexander Hill, professor of Military History at the University of Calgary (Canada), spoke along the same lines: There is no doubt that the end of the conflict is still far away. Neither side is willing to negotiate their territorial claims.
The Ukrainian side insists – among other things – that Russia give up all territory seized since 2014, something Moscow is unlikely to ever agree to, and in particular with regard to Crimea, he told this agency.
It is that Ukraine, emboldened by its resistance and the support of Western powers, proclaims its intention to recover not only the territories taken by Moscow from the start of the large-scale invasion in 2022, but also the Crimean peninsula and the separatist regions under Russian control since 2014.
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